Thursday, March 17, 2016

The Economist rates Trump presidency among its top 10 global risks

A Donald Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the U.S. and heighten security risks for the United States, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Electing Trump could also start a trade war, hurt trade with Mexico and be a godsend to terrorist recruiters in the Middle East, according to the latest EIU forecasts. 

The well-respected global economic and geopolitical analysis firm put a possible Trump presidency in its top 10 global risks this month, released Wednesday. Other risks include a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, a fracture of the Eurozone, and Britain’s possible departure from the European Union.

Trump’s controversial remarks on Muslims would be a gift to “potential recruiters who have long been trying to paint the U.S. as an anti-Muslim country. His rhetoric will certainly help that recruiting effort,” said Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at EIU.
Until Trump, the firm had never rated a pending election of a candidate to be a geopolitical risk to the U.S. and the world. The firm has no plans to include Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz or John Kasich on future risk lists.

“It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items,” Powell said in an interview, but noted that the firm has once included the transition at the top of the Chinese Communist Party as a top-ten risk as well.
“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” wrote EIU. But “such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”   Politico

My Comment:  This blog usually focuses on local or state politics and issues, but I must comment on the Trump phenomena.  When Trump first began being mentioned as a candidate, I thought it was a joke.  When he started holding rallies, I thought it was a publicity stunt and he would drop out before the first primary.  When he began getting on the ballots, I though he would be annihilated in the first caucus and primary contest. Wrong! That shows you how much I know.

I have never been tempted to support Trump.  The only time I have warmed to him even a little is when he is attacked by people like President Obama's mentor, American terrorist Bill Ayers, and people like "Reverend" Al Sharpton and film maker Michael Moore and some other liberals who I detest.  Also, I have on occasion found his refusal to bow to the gods of political correctness refreshing. When a  reporter asked him why he used the term "anchor babies" and said many found the term offensive Trump asked the reporter what term he should use.  The reporter proposed “the American-born childs [sic] of undocumented immigrants.” Trump said, “You want me to use that? Okay. I’ll use the word ‘anchor baby.'” I've got to love it. It is refreshing. If the indoctrinators at American universities, the TV chattering class and the mainstream press started referring to drug dealers as "unlicensed pharmacist," soon everyone would be using to term in order not to offend "unlicensed Pharmacist." I am sick of political correctness and letting the left control the language.  Because I find Trump's refusal to bow to political correctness refreshing and because I hate many of his enemies however, is not reason enough to make me support Donald Trump.

There are several reasons I oppose Trump.  My primary reason all along has been because he is not a conservative.  However, after more reflection and reading the Economist article above, my primary reason has shifted and now it is that I fear he would start a trade war and be reckless in foreign affairs. His not being a conservative has fallen to the number two reason I can not support Donald Trump.

At this point, I am not sure what I will do if he is the nominee; I do not think I could vote for him.  I think there is little doubt that if he is the nominee Hillary Clinton will be the president. However, since I was so wrong about Trump before, I could be wrong again.  There really may be a Trump presidency and I find that a scary thought.

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