Thursday, September 8, 2016

'Here's your electoral map problem, Mr. Trump'

Some Republicans are ecstatic that some recent national polls show Trump in a dead heat tie with Hillary Clinton.  One poll even shows Trump ahead by one point.  These are not just the low-information casual voters who are smelling victory, but informed Republican who should know better.  I think it is wishful thinking. They seem to forget that as a nation we do not elect the president; as the people of the fifty states we elect a president. Who wins the national popularity contest is irrelevant, as it should be. 

When you look at the electoral map, Donald Trump is losing big time. Some state that are normally considered solidly Red are in play, such as Mississippi where Trump leads by only one point. Some states that Romney won four years ago have Hillary in the lead. Some states that are consider swing states that Obama just barely won four years ago have Hillary ahead by double digits.  The video above does a good job of explaining the race for electoral votes and that is what really matters.  I do not see any way that Trump can turn this thing around. Trump does not have an organization with troops on the ground. He has no "ground game."

The people do not seem to care that Hillary committed crimes that normal people would go to jail over and they do not care about the pay-for-play scandals or Benghazi. Unless some revelation comes forward that is so big it cannot be ignored or unless the rumors about her health are proven to be true, Hillary is destined to win the election, not that I really care much. I think Hillary and Trump are about equally poor choices and dangerous. I see the choice as between corrupt Democrat A or egotistical in-over-his-head Democrat B. 

What I hate to see is Republicans lose the Senate and possibly the House. If Republicans can hold the House and keep Democrat wins in the Senate below 60 seats, Republicans can stop Hillary from doing very much harm.  They could even stop her from filling Supreme Court vacancies. It would be unusual, but their is nothing that would stop Republicans from refusing to confirm her Supreme Court nominees. 

If Hillary does win the Senate, I believe we could retake it in two years and in two years increase the Republican majority in the House.  Democrats vote less often in off-year elections than Republicans.  In 2020 I believe any sane half-way decent  Republican could win election to President over a second term for Hillary.  Had our Republican nominee been Cruz or Rubio or almost any of the other major contenders we could have won this election. Hillary is not liked; she is only liked because she is not Trump. In four years people will be ready for a change.

Voting starts in some states in just a week.  Republicans should recognized the we have lost the election for President and pull out all the stops and focus on holding the House and the Senate.  One recent poll shows that a majority of Hillary voters are likely to split their ticket. Holding the House is certainly doable and holding the Senate is possible if that is where Republicans will focus their energies.

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