Saturday, November 25, 2017

Democrat Pollster finds 55% of Tennesseans disapprove of tax reform plan

Image result for surprise surprise gomerA company was expanding rapidly and its operations were becoming more complex and the company president decided he needed to hire a Director of Finance. He advertised the position and after narrowing the search, whittled the applicants down to three people, a mathematician, an accountant, and an economist. During the job interview he asked each of the applicants a simple question: "What is two plus two?"

The mathematician said, "That's simple. It's four."  The accountant said, "There is a 99% probability that it is four, given a plus or minus factor of .02."  The economist looked both ways, lowered his head, leaned in, and in a low voice said, "What to you want it to be?" This could also apply to consultants and pollsters.

The Tennessean reports, "Poll, Tennesseans disapprove of congressional tax plan."  That headline should qualify the news story as "fake news." Not that the facts are fake, but that it is presented as if it had some validity.  Unfortunately, that is the similar headline that newspapers across Tennessee used to report this story and is how the media in Maine and Arizona reported the story in their state where the same polling firm also conducted polls and found similar results.

The polling firm conducting the poll was Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates and the poll was paid for by the left-leaning Institute on Taxes and Economic Policy and Americans for Tax Fairness. The firm polled 400 registered Tennessee voters and found only 57 percent of those polled were familiar with the plan, and among those familiar with it, 55 percent disapprove of the measure.

The Tennessean does not give the actual wording of the poll, but this quote from the article is revealing: "The poll takes as fact the plan will cause (insurance) premiums to increase; when presented with this prospect, 77 percent of respondents said they were less likely to support the plan."

The Republicans need to commission a poll that finds 70% approve of the proposed tax reform plan.  I am not trained as a professional pollster but I believe I could design a poll question that could elicit 70% approval.

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