Friday, November 2, 2018

John Ryder explains why Republican electoral chances are not nearly as dire as sometimes reported.

John Ryder
Nov. 2, 2018 - John  Ryder is former General Counsel to the Republican National Committee and is currently Chairman of the Republican National Lawyers Association. He is a "Republican numbers Guru" known for his statistical insights, predictions and analysis. He seldom gets it wrong. I saw him speak at a First Tuesday event in October 2016 and he predicted Trump would win the election when almost all pollsters said he would lose. 

Writing in yesterday's Memphis Commercial Appeal, Ryder offered his insight into the upcoming election and says Democrats prospects are not nearly as great as they seem and Republican chances are not as dire as sometimes reported.  Below is an excerpt:
It looks to me as though the Blue Wave is confined to the blue enclaves and the Red Tide is concentrated in red precincts. Where the concentration is less pronounced, the “wave” is less prominent.

In other words, the spatial polarization that exists in society will manifest itself in increased turnout – one way or the other — in the areas where partisans are most concentrated.

Is there a hidden vote? It’s hidden in plain sight, almost. While the generic ballot for Congress favors the Democrats, the generic ballot in the most competitive districts is tied or favors the Republicans, according to the ABC News Poll and the Wall St. Journal/NBC poll.

That is because the generic ballot in heavily Democratic districts, like the 9th District in Memphis, overwhelmingly favors the Democrat, while in the competitive districts, perhaps the Second district in Arkansas, the generic ballot is closer. There the Republicans have a slight advantage.
That is reassuring and makes sense. He also writes about the impact of negative advertising and the impact of news media bias in the article.  You can read it at this link.

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