Friday, March 27, 2020

I may have been wrong. I am reviving my opinion.

by Rod Williams - I may have been wrong. I am reviving my opinion.

When this virus hit and it became clear that we were going to impose an economic shut down, I thought this is the end of life as we have know it. Businesses will close, never to reopen. Whole industries may close. I envisioned massive inflation. Real shortages would occur. I feared massive deaths, not from only the virus, but mostly from the economic collapse that would occur. As things deteriorated, I predicted roving bands of thugs or maybe private armies raping and pillaging and taking what they want. The government would have to impose martial law. As we barricaded ourselves in our dark homes and bartered for food, we would tremble in fear as the world around us collapsed. This was the apocalypse!

I though surely, I would find other wise voices that would confirm my evaluation. Well, no. A look at Forbes, Barons, WSJ, The Economist, National Review and other sources do not say it is going to be as bad as I said it would be. I assume they are better judges than I. Most say this could be as bad as the 2008 crisis. That was bad. If you recall the market was in free-fall. However, it did end and in a few years we recovered. If this is no worse than 2008, it is not the end of the world.

Other comparisons are to 9-11. We survived that.  A newsletter from National Review today quotes Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who says we’re getting the economic equivalent of a Hurricane Katrina, all around the country, simultaneously. That sounds pretty bad to me. That sounds like the sitting for the apocalypse. However, NR says, "Economic analysts are now looking past the current quarter projecting that the economy will shrink by 2 percent for the year — and that’s simply not knowing how quickly we can start the economic engine back up again."  Two percent shrinkage is not the end of the world.

The only people who were saying the same thing I was about how dire this was going to were Alex Jones and Lew Rockwell. That is not good company to be in, so while I still have my suspicions and fears that this may get real bad, I trust the opinion of WSJ, Barons, Forbes, and National Review more than I trust my own. So, I am falling in line with main stream responsible conservatives voices. My new view is that this may get bad, but it is not the end of the world.

I am pleased that Donald Trump is saying that he wants this to be over by Easter. Some are no doubt saying we need to listen to the health experts and stay in lock down mode as long as health care officials recommend it. We do need to listen to health experts but that is not the only experts from whom we need to here. I think Trump is right in saying the cure could be worse than the disease. We need to listen to health experts and economist and people who can see the big picture. This is a health crisis, but not only a health crisis.

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