Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Exit Poll Shows Haslam, Hall, Lynn and Yarbro Set to Win Primary

Press Release from David Hall for Congress
August 2, 2010

Nashville, TN: After the 2008 Presidential elections, many experts predicted a truly unique 2010 election cycle. Evidence is mounting for these predictions to come true here in Davidson County politics. Present in the Republican Gubernatorial Primary is endless drama with money pouring in, not to mention the Republican support of Jeff Yarbro, a truly progressive challenger to Doug Henry, justified by traditional Republicans who claim that he is unable to win against their Republican nominee. Then of course you have the Juvenile Court Clerk hopeful, David Smith, who started his campaign a solid 30 months before Election Day, but the Republicans’ Eric Crafton is forging a close battle to the finish. Finally you have the Republican 5th Congressional District Primary drawing national support from Sarah Palin’s endorsement of CeCe Heil, followed by a vaguely explained endorsement from local Democrat State Rep Ben West Jr that has Democrats outraged and Republicans confused. Below is list of poll results released by David Hall, a Candidate for Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, stratified by AHC Group, a local media consulting firm.

Republican Primary Races

333 Total Registered Voters, Who’ve Already Voted In The Republican Primary

Gubernatorial Primary

Bill Haslam - 50.15%

Ron Ramsey - 29.9%

Zach Wamp – 19.95%

A surprising fact discovered - Voter exit data shows that 1/6 of all 2010 Republican Primary Voters have voted strictly Democrat in past primaries. When questioned the most common reason given is that the Democratic Primary doesn’t offer enough competition.

5th Congressional Primary

David Hall - 29%

Jeff Hartline - 23%

CeCe Heil - 23%

Bob Schwartz - 5%

Vijay Kumar - 3%

Patrick Miranda - 3%

Lonnie Spivak - 3%

Other - 11%

Voter exit polling shows that David’s $200,000 in voter contact has put his campaign a full 6% above his closest competitors.
Democratic Primary Races

126 Total Registered Voters, Who’ve Already Voted In The Democratic Primary

5th Congressional Primary

Jim Cooper - 87%

Eric Pearson -7%
\Eric Schecter - 6%

Nothing too surprising here, Jim Cooper, the Democratic incumbent is favored to win by a landslide.

State Senate District 21

Doug Henry - 36%

Jeff Yarbro - 64%

A rather difficult race to understand but the anti-incumbent fever seems to be affecting long time Senator Doug Henry as the new blood candidate, Jeff Yarbro, is beginning to break-away.

Davidson County General Election

294 Total Registered Voters, Who’ve Already Voted In The County General

Juvenile Court Clerk

Eric Crafton - 49.65%

David Smith – 50.35%

The fact that Eric Crafton is a Republican doesn’t seem to be helping him as 1/6 of the Republican vote is made up of previously Democratic voters who tend to vote accordingly in the county general. However, this race is clearly too close to call.

Criminal Court Clerk

David Torrence - 72%

David Baxter - 28%
Criminal Court Clerk David Torrence’s positive name recognition should be enough to carry him through the county general quite comfortably.

Davidson County has been a Democratic strong hold for decades, 2010 however provides fertile ground for grass-roots Republican victories.

Wilson County Republican Primary

17th State Senate Primary

Mae Beavers- 37%

Gordon Borck- 12%

Susan Lynn - 51%

Another heated contest shows Lynn with a strong lead.
Keaton Myers - Spokesperson
David Hall for Congress

Comment:

The highlighting in the above press release is mine.

I am taking this press release with a big grain of salt. A search for "AHC Group" reveals a major consulting firm headquartered in Saratoga Springs, New York. In Nashville there is the American Harmonica Club and an AHC records which is a music label, and American Health Consultants. The only AHC that could be a local media consulting firm was The AHC Group which has a very sparse web page.

The AHC Group is described as "a premier outbound data collection firm providing a full range of quality services through its modern facilities located in the heart of Nashville, TN. The AHC Group combines dynamic, experienced and professional staff with advanced data management and information technologies. This means that The AHC Group can provide clients with a strategic edge by setting industry standards in unrivaled service and customized market research data collection."

The address is not give, no list of client, and no other information. Is this the AHC referred to in the press release above?

My Predictions for the 5th.
I am going to go way out on a limb and give you my gut-feeling, unscientific prediction for the fifth:
Cece Heil 34%
Jeff Hatline 32%
Bob Schwartz 12%
David hall 9%
Lonnie Spivak 6%
The remaining five split the other 7 percent.

If David Hall wins this race and gets 29% of the vote I will be very surprised. If he is the nominee, I will work to help him get elected, but I am just not believing it.

No one should be influenced by my prediction. It is just a WAG. However, I will bet someone lunch that my predictions are closer than those listed in the David Hall press release.

What do you think?

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6 comments:

  1. Until David Hall is willing to:

    1) Explain who and what AHC is, besides just a blurb that anyone could have written...

    2) Explain why polls of just a few hundred people costs $201,000...

    ...then nothing David Hall says regarding polling numbers can be taken seriously.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Also, a WHOIS lookup of theahcgroup.com shows that the website was registered on July 10th. Just a few days before David Hall's second quarter filing shows that he spent over $201,000 with them.

    Something still doesn't add up.

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  3. Why not bet David Hall lunch?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I think the first thing to determine as you say, is who is AHC and what is their track record when it comes to "exit polling".

    Second, according to the FEC filings, AHC was given over 200,000 in dispersements as "in-kind". Now why would a company that provides data and information gathering "give-away" almost 200k in business, doesn't really make sense to me. But, if they did do the poll as an "in-kind" contribution to the Hall campaign, wouldn't it be fair to reason they are a bit "skewed" towards a positive result for Hall?

    Too many red flags in this "press release" He hasn't run any tv or radio ads in the Davidson County area, that I've heard and I'm a talk show junky. Has he run any print ads?

    Is this just a way to get some media attention? If it is, I will be curious to see if the Tennessean or other news organizations pick up on this and if they do, I am sure there will be some inquiries into several issues:

    Who is AHC? and what have they done in the past for other candidates?

    Is it ethical to release exit polling before an election is over?
    (NBC got heat in the Regan election for predicting that he had run before the West coast polls had closed as well as the Gore problem in 2000 in Florida)

    Valid questions, I think should be answered.

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  5. It appears the Federal Election Commission would also like to know more about AHC.

    http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/556/10030394556/10030394556.pdf

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  6. David Hall is a self promoter that knows no shame. Did anyone contribute to his campaign that doesn't have the last name "Hall"??? If he wins the primary we are truly sunk.

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